The IRF Podcast

“The Return of 1980s Currency Volatility”, Andrew Hunt, Andrew Hunt Economics

In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these will impact on the rest of the world. In Europe, Andrew reviews the diverse economic factors in various countries and assesses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB and by the Bank of England.

 

Andrew Hunt is a former Chief International Economist at Dresdner RCM Global Investors. In 2001 he set up his own company, Andrew Hunt Economics, to provide economic commentary and insight on the major issues of the day to hedge funds, mainstream asset managers, family offices, non-financial companies and the management of major banks.

"How Demographic Trends Will Impact Investment Performance", Shamil Ismail, Primaresearch

In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decreasing and there is a rising proportion of older people (who consume less). Several major markets – including China, Japan, Italy, Germany and South Korea – have ageing and declining populations already. According to Shamil, these demographic shifts will have a significant impact on investment performance as demand weakens and wage inflation rises. He also highlights where he sees the most attractive investment opportunities from a demographic perspective.

 

Primaresearch provides demographic analysis on investment opportunities globally. Their standardised demographic risk measure allows investors to compare these risks across companies and sectors. Primaresearch also provides fundamental, bottom-up research on consumer-facing companies in South Africa.

“Global Financial Markets: Momentum, Risks and Outlook”, Ron William, RW Advisory

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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“Monetary Policy and the Hidden Financial Stability Agenda”, Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives

In this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view on financial stability as a constraint on central bank actions in a more fragile financial environment. In addition, Peter assesses the probable impact of these various monetary policy decisions on the currency and other financial markets in the next 6 – 18 months.

Peter Warburton has a long and distinguished career as a leading economist in the financial sector, previously working for top firms, including Robert Fleming and Lehman Brothers. He has been a member of the IEA’s “Shadow Monetary Policy Committee” since its inception in 1997. In addition, Peter is Managing Director of Halkin Services, a global risk analysis & asset allocation service.

Founded in 1996, Economic Perspectives is an independent global macro-financial research company that challenges conventional thinking and provides valuable investment insights for professional investors.

“Is the EU on the Right Track?”, Wolfgang Munchau, Eurointelligence

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence.

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“Is An Inflation Regime Change Underway?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory.

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"The US Economic, Political and Investment Outlook", David Metzner & Chris Czerwinski, ACG Analytics

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics.

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"The Politics of Macroeconomic Stabilisation in Argentina; Can President Milei Succeed?", Nicholas Watson, Teneo

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian economy.

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"Global Investing at a Time of War", David Murrin, Global Forecaster

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.

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“Global Financial Markets: Recent Trends and Future Prospects”, Ron William, RW Advisory

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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