The IRF Podcast

"Global Financial Markets in an Era of Uncertainty", Ron William, RW Advisory

In this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views.

In the currency markets, Ron points out the key support levels for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and discusses the outlook for the dollar’s main cross rates with the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen.

In the bond markets, Ron discusses the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the upside potential and asymmetric cyclical downside risks in the US, UK and other key stock markets.

Ron concludes with an assessment of the prospects for gold and some of the other important commodities with reference to the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter cyclical trends, including those influencing the main cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.

“The Outlook for World Commodity Investments in 2025”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group.

Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity investment in 2025. He starts with an assessment of the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals.

In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices very uncertain this year, not least because potential developments in the Ukraine, in the Middle East and with US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively high, but possibly with a slight downside bias, given the risk of a global economic recession commencing later this year or in 2026. Jeffrey then highlights his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets.

In conclusion, Jeffrey discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have an overweight position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2025.

Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

“Investing Through The Business Cycle & Beyond”, Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research

David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research.

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“Back to the Future: East Asia & Trump 2.0”, Paul Cavey, East Asia Econ

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.

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“The Trumpian Outlook for US Domestic & Foreign Policies", James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners

David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners.

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“Asset Allocation to Survive an Exciting 2025”, Callum Thomas, Topdown Charts

In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe.

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"Global Economy and Capital Markets; the end of Business as Usual", Paul Hodges, New Normal Consulting

Paul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy.

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China 2025: Stimulus Meets Debt-Deflation and Global Headwinds, Brian McCarthy, Macrolens

Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary period, and recommended caution in investing in Chinese markets.

The Budget - In Reeves we Trust? Helen Thomas, Blonde Money

Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalition.

Emerging Markets - The Myth that Failed? Manoj Pradhan - Talking Heads Macro; Jon Anderson - Emerging Advisors Group & JP Smith - IRF

We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.