The IRF Podcast

The Budget - In Reeves we Trust? Helen Thomas, Blonde Money

Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalition.

Emerging Markets - The Myth that Failed? Manoj Pradhan - Talking Heads Macro; Jon Anderson - Emerging Advisors Group & JP Smith - IRF

We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

“Japan: A Safe Haven In A Troubled World?”, Tobias Harris, Japan Foresight

In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the demographic trends that are impacting on the longer-term outlook for the economy and Japanese society.

"Contrarian Alert: Why the Chinese Yuan Could Strengthen", Diana Choyleva, Enodo Economics

In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China’s economic development, not least the threat of potential military action against the neighbouring island of Taiwan. She also assesses the investment opportunities in the Chinese bond and stock markets, particularly from the viewpoint of international investors in what is becoming a more bifurcated world. In conclusion Diana considers how the economic developments in China are impacting on the rest of the world, especially with respect to the global commodity markets.

Track record page - https://bit.ly/4gcJJ60

Diana’s X profile – https://bit.ly/3X7pKgB

“The Return of 1980s Currency Volatility”, Andrew Hunt, Andrew Hunt Economics

In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these will impact on the rest of the world. In Europe, Andrew reviews the diverse economic factors in various countries and assesses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB and by the Bank of England.

 

Andrew Hunt is a former Chief International Economist at Dresdner RCM Global Investors. In 2001 he set up his own company, Andrew Hunt Economics, to provide economic commentary and insight on the major issues of the day to hedge funds, mainstream asset managers, family offices, non-financial companies and the management of major banks.

"How Demographic Trends Will Impact Investment Performance", Shamil Ismail, Primaresearch

In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decreasing and there is a rising proportion of older people (who consume less). Several major markets – including China, Japan, Italy, Germany and South Korea – have ageing and declining populations already. According to Shamil, these demographic shifts will have a significant impact on investment performance as demand weakens and wage inflation rises. He also highlights where he sees the most attractive investment opportunities from a demographic perspective.

 

Primaresearch provides demographic analysis on investment opportunities globally. Their standardised demographic risk measure allows investors to compare these risks across companies and sectors. Primaresearch also provides fundamental, bottom-up research on consumer-facing companies in South Africa.

“Global Financial Markets: Momentum, Risks and Outlook”, Ron William, RW Advisory

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

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“Monetary Policy and the Hidden Financial Stability Agenda”, Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives

In this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view on financial stability as a constraint on central bank actions in a more fragile financial environment. In addition, Peter assesses the probable impact of these various monetary policy decisions on the currency and other financial markets in the next 6 – 18 months.

Peter Warburton has a long and distinguished career as a leading economist in the financial sector, previously working for top firms, including Robert Fleming and Lehman Brothers. He has been a member of the IEA’s “Shadow Monetary Policy Committee” since its inception in 1997. In addition, Peter is Managing Director of Halkin Services, a global risk analysis & asset allocation service.

Founded in 1996, Economic Perspectives is an independent global macro-financial research company that challenges conventional thinking and provides valuable investment insights for professional investors.

“Is the EU on the Right Track?”, Wolfgang Munchau, Eurointelligence

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence.

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“Is An Inflation Regime Change Underway?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory.

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