The IRF Podcast

“Investing Through The Business Cycle & Beyond”, Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne Research

David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research.

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“Back to the Future: East Asia & Trump 2.0”, Paul Cavey, East Asia Econ

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.

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“The Trumpian Outlook for US Domestic & Foreign Policies", James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners

David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners.

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“Asset Allocation to Survive an Exciting 2025”, Callum Thomas, Topdown Charts

In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe.

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"Global Economy and Capital Markets; the end of Business as Usual", Paul Hodges, New Normal Consulting

Paul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy.

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China 2025: Stimulus Meets Debt-Deflation and Global Headwinds, Brian McCarthy, Macrolens

Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary period, and recommended caution in investing in Chinese markets.

The Budget - In Reeves we Trust? Helen Thomas, Blonde Money

Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalition.

Emerging Markets - The Myth that Failed? Manoj Pradhan - Talking Heads Macro; Jon Anderson - Emerging Advisors Group & JP Smith - IRF

We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

“Japan: A Safe Haven In A Troubled World?”, Tobias Harris, Japan Foresight

In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the demographic trends that are impacting on the longer-term outlook for the economy and Japanese society.

"Contrarian Alert: Why the Chinese Yuan Could Strengthen", Diana Choyleva, Enodo Economics

In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China’s economic development, not least the threat of potential military action against the neighbouring island of Taiwan. She also assesses the investment opportunities in the Chinese bond and stock markets, particularly from the viewpoint of international investors in what is becoming a more bifurcated world. In conclusion Diana considers how the economic developments in China are impacting on the rest of the world, especially with respect to the global commodity markets.

Track record page - https://bit.ly/4gcJJ60

Diana’s X profile – https://bit.ly/3X7pKgB